Power Tools 1993 November - Disc 2/Power Tools Plus (Disc 2 of 2)(November 1993)(HP).iso/hotlines/cpethl/pentium/pentium.txt

Text File | 1993-04-06 | 14KB | 269 lines

INTEL PENTIUM ANNOUNCEMENT AND ANALYSIS

On March 22, 1993 Intel formally announced the Pentium (P5) micro-
processor, the latest member of Intel's x86 family.  Intel will
announce Pentium chip pricing in May or June. Other vendors made
related announcements of support for Pentium; system announcements and
system availability are expected in May.  HP announced that its new
line of PC servers will support the Pentium microprocessor; an HP
announcement of file and application servers is planned for May.


THE ANNOUNCEMENT

Pentium Features:
- 273-pins in a 21 x 21 4-row pin grid array
- 3.1 million transistors
- 60- and 66-MHz clock speeds
- 64-bit data bus
- 32-bit address bus
- a superscalar implementation and two five-stage execution units
  enable Pentium to process two simple instructions simultaneously
- two 8K on-chip caches
- a floating-point unit
- branch prediction that enables the chip to recall prior instruction
  pathways and predict the correct pathway for a new instruction.
- runs at 5 volts

Pentium chips are fabricated in a 0.8-micron, 3-layer metal BiCMOS
process.

Software that runs on a 486 should run without problems on a Pentium.

  TABLE 1: COMPARISON OF HEWLETT-PACKARD AND INTEL CPU CHIP FEATURES
|--------------------------------------------------------------------|
|         Core      Bus      Instr.  Data  Address -- Cache ---  FPU |
|         Speed(s)  Speed(s) Width   Bus     Bus   Data  Instr.      |
|         (MHz)     (MHz)    (Bits)  (Bits) (Bits)  (K Bytes)        |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------|
| PA7100  99        99         32     64     64*    256   256    Yes |
| PA7100  33,50     33,50      32     64     64*     64    64    Yes |
| Pentium 60,66     60,66      32     64     32       8     8    Yes |
| 486DX2  40,50,66  20,25,33   32     32     32             8**  Yes |
| 486DX   25,33,50  25,33,50   32     32     32             8**  Yes |
| 486SX   16,20,25  16,20,25   32     32     32             8**  No  |
|                                                                    |
|  *PA-RISC implements a segmented 64-bit virtual address            |
| **A 486 has one unified internal cache                             |
|                                                                    |
| KEY:                                                               |
| Core Speed:        CPU's internal speed for processing information |
| Bus Speed:         The speed at which the CPU communicates with    |
|                    peripheral chips and memory                     |
| Instruction Width: Number of bits used in an instruction           |
| Data Bus:          Number of bits read into the chip during one    |
|                    cycle                                           |
| Address Bus:       Number of bits used to address memory directly  |
| Internal Cache:    Size of the CPU's internal memory               |
| FPU:               Floating Point Unit that allows the CPU to make |
|                    quick non-integer computations                  |
| 486DX:             Intel's highest-performing 486 chip             |
| 486DX2:            Uses clock-doubling to double core speed        |
| 486SX:             Lacks a math coprocessor, making it slow for    |
|                    spreadsheet, scientific, and statistical        |
|                    applications.                                   |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------|

Pentium Positioning
-------------------
Pentium is positioned directly at its RISC competitors.  With vastly
improved floating-point performance over the 486, Intel is looking to
attract technical users of engineering, CAD/CAM, client/server,
financial analysis and modeling, multimedia (full-motion video, voice
recognition and imaging), and other emerging high-end applications
that require very fast floating-point processing.

Intel's Future Plans
--------------------
Intel's announcement indicated that:
- 486DX2-based systems will be upgradable to Pentium in the future
- An OverDrive processor that disables the original processor and
  increases system performance will be available in 1994.

Performance
-----------
    TABLE 2: COMPARISON OF INTEL AND HEWLETT-PACKARD PERFORMANCE
|--------------------------------------------------------------------|
|         ---------- I  N  T  E  L ----------  --- Hewlett-Packard --|
|   Chip: 486DX 486DX 486DX2 --- Pentium* ---  ------- PA 7100 ------|
|   MHz:     33    50    66    50    60    66      33      50     99 |
|SPECint92 18.2  30.1  32.2  48.7  58.3  64.5    24.2    37.1   80.6 |
|SPECfp92   8.3  14.0  16.0  43.4  52.2  56.9    46.0    71.8  150.6 |
|                                                                    |
| * Numbers for the 60- and 66-MHz Pentium chips were provided by    |
|   Intel and obtained using versions of the SPEC benchmarks         |
|   recompiled for Pentium.  Numbers for the 50-MHz Pentium were     |
|   estimated from the 60 and 66 MHz benchmark results.              |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------|

Delivery
--------
Intel will ship "hundreds-of-thousands" of Pentium chips in 1993.
Intel expects to ship its one-millionth Pentium sometime in 1994.


THE ANALYSIS

Intel's press release on Pentium was brief and limited.  Additional
information, which included interviews with Intel sources and PC
vendors, was available through industry consultant reports and trade
press.  That information is reflected in this analysis.

Announcement Strengths
----------------------
* Performance Improvements over the 486 *
Pentium provides substantially improved integer and floating-point
performance compared with the 486.

* Excellent Price/Performance on the Desktop *
Pentium-based desktop systems are expected to be priced in the $4,000
to $10,000 range, with an average price of $6000; servers are expected
to be priced above $10,000.  At this pricing, Pentium-based systems
deliver excellent price/performance on the desktop.

* First Superscalar Implementation for PC systems *
Pentium's superscalar implementation is a first for PC-class systems;
with it, Pentium decodes two simple instructions simultaneously.

* Excellent Integer Performance *
Pentium's substantially improved integer performance should allow
Intel to maintain its market position on the desktop.  Pentium's
integer performance is within range of all its RISC competitors.  Its
integer performance at 50-MHz is 31% better than a 50-MHz PA7100 and
twice that of a 33-MHz PA7100.

HP Selling Points
-----------------
* Pentium Performance Limitations - Software Recompiles Required *
- Significant performance improvements can only be obtained by code
  optimization and recompilation using special Pentium compilers.  In
  some cases code must be rewritten to improve performance; code must
  be redesigned to take advantage of the 64-bit data bus.
- Actual performance is affected by system implementation, so
  performance of different vendors Pentium-based systems will vary.
- Code that has been recompiled for a Pentium will run on a 486 with
  little or no affect on performance.

*HP's Superior Floating-Point Performance *
At 50-MHz, PA7100 floating point performance is 65% better, and
at 33-MHz, PA7100 floating-point performance is 6% better than the
estimated 50-MHz Pentium performance.  Many PC vendors have said they
will run the Pentium at 50- to 55-MHz due to heat dissipation problems
that result when running the 3.1 million transistor Pentium at 66-MHz.

Intel wants to target multimedia, engineering, CAD/CAM and other
applications that require very fast floating point.  While Intel has
made great improvements over the 486, they haven't delivered floating-
point performance superior to their RISC competitors, and Pentium
doesn't come close to the 50-MHz PA7100 in floating-point
performance. We should compete on our floating-point performance, not
on price/performance.

* Pentium Chip and System UNAvailability *
- Currently, due to heat problems, the 5V Pentium cannot run reliably
  at 66-MHz. It is believed that Intel is working on a 3.3V version
  to resolve this problem.  Reliable Pentium systems that can run at
  full clock speed won't be available until CQ194.
- The supply of Pentium chips will be limited in 1993 due to
  1) High Price:
     Intel expects to announce Pentium pricing in May or June 1993.
     Speculation is that Pentium chips will initially be priced at
     around $950, though a range of $800 to $1000 has been noted.  486
     chips are currently priced at $300.
  2) Limitations in production speed:
     Intel spent $2-3 billion on R&D and plant capacity for Pentium,
     compared with $1 billion total on the 486.  They can currently
     produce a dozen 486 chips for every one Pentium.  With Pentium
     costs and pricing so high, Intel must continue to sell 486s to
     maximize profit.
  3) Limited Pentium distribution and push on 486 sales:
     Intel plans to ship about 10,000 Pentiums in CQ293, with volume
     shipments coming as 486 sales slack off.  They are content to
     sell primarily 486s and expect to sell 25 million 486 chips in
     1993.  A limited number of Pentium samples are now available to
     first-tier Intel vendors.  All vendors anticipate a short supply
     of Pentium throughout 1993; first-tier vendors expect only
     1,000 to 4,000 chips per month, compared with about 50,000 486
     chips per month each.  Some vendors don't expect to receive ANY
     Pentium chips until CQ393.
- PC and chip vendors have indicated that they need extra design time
  to design their Pentium products because of the chip's complexity
  and because of heat problems at 5V.
- Currently available supporting chips (for example, logic chips)
  that must work with Pentium are slow; only a limited number have
  been tuned to work with it, so early systems based on Pentium may
  not be able to exploit the chip's full capabilities.

* UNavailability of Technical Applications for Pentium *
Though Intel is working with software developers to encourage shipment
of products that take advantage of Pentium, only two dozen
applications tuned for Pentium are now available; Windows and Windows
NT are not among them. Existing applications will run and will provide
some speed gains but won't take full advantage of the chip.  To
maximize improvements applications must be recompiled and, in some
cases, rewritten.

Currently HP has over 5,000 applications available for PA-RISC, over
3,200 of those for the Series 700 family.  As workstations have always
been a powerhouse for technical applications, a significant number of
these are technical floating-point intensive applications.  Today
there are a limited number of technical floating-point applications
for PCs; these must first now be developed.

HP is experienced in technical applications, and we have a large
installed base successfully deploying and using technical floating-
point intensive applications on PA-RISC.

* Hidden Costs of Pentium and PC ownership *
Hidden costs associated with purchasing a Pentium-based system include
new compilers, new versions of applications tuned for Pentium, and the
hardware upgrades required to eliminate heat dissipation problems and
take full advantage of Pentium's potential performance.

In addition, recent research by Nolan, Norton & Co., a Boston-based
consulting group, shows that the actual cost of PC ownership, because
of support costs ranging from $6,000 to $15,000 annually per PC, is
significantly more than the total budgeted amount--usually 2,000 to
$6,500 annually per PC--for its purchase, network, and support.

* Limitation of Pentium's Superscalar Implementation *
The key to Intel's superscalar implementation is that the instructions
must be "simple".  In other words, Pentium can only decode two integer
instructions simultaneously.

The PA-RISC 7100 superscalar implementation can decode one integer and
one floating point instruction simultaneously.

* Pentium Clone Availability *
Pentium clones from AMD and Cyrix are expected within 9 to 24 months.
This is much sooner than any intel-clone manufacturers have shipped
their products in the past.  Clone availability will come right on the
heels of Intel's general availability and could impact Intel's sales
more than ever before.

* OS Deficiency on Pentium *
NT, the primary OS target for Pentium, has not been Pentium-optimized
or recompiled. Furthermore, even once it is available, NT will be a
new operating environment on a new architecture.  There are bound to
be some problems in this environment.

HP-UX is a mature, robust, proven operating environment with the
functionality required in a day-to-day working environment and the
support for technical applications.


SUMMARY
Intel has made some great improvements over their 486 chip.  But Intel
has far to go before impacting their RISC competitors due to Pentium's
- performance limitations and the need to recompile software
- inadequate floating-point performance for technical applications
- chip UNavailability throughout 1993
According to a Gartner Group analysis, "trends in performance of the
RISC processors indicate that Pentium will lag all architectures by
the time it ships in volume".  HP is the leader in RISC.  Intel's
Pentium should have little impact on our success in the workstation
market.

[end]
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Author:  Shari Zedeck, WSG Outbound Marketing